Precise Prediction of Hurricane Power vs Ocean Temperature

نویسندگان

چکیده

It has long been known that hurricanes, the strongest and most destructive atmospheric events, do not occur below a sea surface temperature near 26 C. The detailed dependence of hurricane power on ocean is increasing interest concern in prospect continuing global warming. was usefully quantified by Emanuel 2005 with definition tabulations dissipation index, PDI. This integral over relevant areas cube maximum windspeed, representiting dissipated one year. In his important paper found PDI for North Atlantic increased strongly recent decades showed plots close correlation temperature. A critical Tc, linear T-Tc law dependence, typical continuous phase transition, hurricanes have prcviously (Wolf, 2020) inferred from index vs T. implies tropical cyclone formation can be regarded as second order transition warm ocean-atmosphere system, driven disequilibrium water content. We here show theory transitions allows precise prediction windspeed find wind velocity same universality class Ising Model, uniaxial antiferromagenet vapor- liquid simple fluids, shares their exponent. An implication applicability potential intensity noted.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Ocean acoustic hurricane classification.

Theoretical and empirical evidence are combined to show that underwater acoustic sensing techniques may be valuable for measuring the wind speed and determining the destructive power of a hurricane. This is done by first developing a model for the acoustic intensity and mutual intensity in an ocean waveguide due to a hurricane and then determining the relationship between local wind speed and u...

متن کامل

The CBLAST-Hurricane Program and the Next- Generation Fully Coupled Atmosphere–Wave–Ocean Models for Hurricane Research and Prediction

sphere–wave–ocean modeling system that is capable of resolving the eye and eyewall at ~1-km grid resolution, which is consistent with a key recommendation for the next-generation hurricane-prediction models by the NOAA Science Advisor Board Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group. It is also the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) plan for the new Hurricane Weather Research ...

متن کامل

Hurricane Prediction with Python

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global spectral model used for aviation weather forecast. It produces forecasts of wind speed and direction, temperature, humidity and precipitation out to 192 hr every 6 hours over the entire globe. The horizontal resolution in operational version of the GFS is about 25 km. Much longer integration of sim...

متن کامل

Fast and Precise Power Prediction for Combinational Circuits

The power consumed by a combinational circuit is dictated by the switching activities of all signals associated with the circuit. An analytical approach is proposed for calculating signal activities for combinational circuits. The approach is based on a Markov chain signal model, and directly accounts for correlations present among the signals. The accuracy of the approach is verified by compar...

متن کامل

Precise Wind Power Prediction with SVM Ensemble Regression

In this work, we propose the use of support vector regression ensembles for wind power prediction. Ensemble methods often yield better classification and regression accuracy than classical machine learning algorithms and reduce the computational cost. In the field of wind power generation, the integration into the smart grid is only possible with a precise forecast computed in a reasonable time...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: International journal of atmospheric and oceanic sciences

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2640-1142', '2640-1150']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijaos.20210501.11